Probability & Tennis

Probability & Tennis
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Each shot hit in a tennis match represents a choice. For example, you have the option of hitting a serve down the middle or angled wide. Groundstrokes can be directed down the line or cross court. Experienced players will base these choices, in part, on probability. The percentage play in hitting certain types of shots factors into strategy that can make the difference in a match.

The Low Part of the Net

In his book, "Think to Win: The Strategic Dimension of Tennis," Allen Fox writes that the majority of service returns should be played cross court. Such shots take advantage of the middle of the net -- a full six inches lower than ends -- and provides an angle which gives you more court in which to land the ball. This isn't to say that every shot should be hit cross court -- you still need to mix it up. However, use the benefit of increased probability a good portion of the time to get the point started.

Approach Shots

Fred Hesse writes on the Global Community Tennis website that when preparing to rush the net, the percentage play is to hit most of your approach shots down the middle. This strategy will limit the available angles your opponent has to hit a passing shot. It's also important to remember that approach shots need to be deep enough in your opponent's side of the court to be effective. Strive to land them within two or three feet of the baseline.

First Serve

Using your serve as a weapon depends on your ability to consistently get it in play. Allen Fox points out that although you may be able to generate big power on your serve, you need to consider the probability of landing many of them in the service box when you go all out. Consider using a three-quarter-speed serve to increase your consistency and to reduce the likelihood of double faults.

Opponent's Weaknesses

Fred Hesse notes that it's important to determine your opponent's weaknesses early in the match. Playing your shots to those weaknesses will increase the probability that your opponent makes errors. This approach also helps keep your competition from getting into a rhythm and gaining confidence. Although it's important to move the ball around somewhat during the match, keep pounding those weaknesses.

References

Article reviewed by DonaldM Last updated on: Jul 7, 2011

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